Unwritten Rules of the NHL Draft

Olli Maatta was a key piece of a Cup winning blueline, and went much later than he should have in 2012 (via alchetron.com)

In case you forgot, the NHL Draft is tomorrow. For me, it's like half Christmas. The teams all gather together in one room, break bread and wait for their own version of Santa Clause - Gary Bettman - to let them have their turn picking their presents. Well, maybe not, but that's how I see it.

With each pick, the GM and his scouting staff have the opportunity to select a player that may one day score the Stanley Cup winning goal for their franchise. Or, perhaps when that pick blossoms into a promising young player, they use him to trade for that savvy veteran that puts the team over the top.

The point is, every team is given seven chances a year to strike gold or find that diamond in the rough. If you don't celebrate Christmas or missed the Aladdin reference, everyone should be able to understand the economics at stake. The draft is all about maximizing your assets. A miss in the first two rounds any year is detrimental, but hitting on a pick in rounds 3-7 is where a team can really separate itself from the pack. If a GM can make the most of these later round selections they can take what is a relatively equal league-wide commodity and turn it into an exceptional one. Not only does this ultimately lead to a better team on the ice but also allots a GM more trade chips than his peers. The bottom line is, championship teams are built through the draft.

This has never been truer than with the installment of the salary cap. It is impossible to compete for the Cup without some young, cheap talent contributing in the playoffs. This has been evidenced by the Brian Rust's, Connor Sheary's and Chris Tierney's of the 2016 playoff season; but also with Tyler Toffoli, Brandon Saad and Tampa Bay's triplet line in recent years.

Ondrej Palat was drafted in the 7th round of the 2011 draft (via lightning.nhl.com)

Because of the importance of entry-level deals to contending teams, NHL teams pour hours of analysis into finding their next gem by watching, interviewing and crunching numbers to attempt to make the right decision. However, once you step back from the numbers, certain patterns begin to emerge - patterns which could allow teams to improve their draft strategy. A consideration of these patterns might prevent one from choosing Al Montoya 6th overall when Pekka Rinne is available in the 8th Round (as it went in 2004). Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but we must learn from the past if we hope to better our future.

Below are some patterns I have noticed over years of following the draft. While it's important to note that there is always an exception to the rule, these patterns serve as another tool to have in your pocket when preparing for that fateful day in June. I looked at a decade's worth of drafts (2002-2012) to determine my (now written) unwritten rules of the NHL draft:

1. Pick A Defenseman in Round 2 or 3 (Unless you have a top 5 selection)

This is a very specific rule, but hear me out. Unless you have the opportunity to pick one of the top 2 defensemen in the draft (Doughty, Hedman, Ekblad, etc), it's probably better to hold off and use a 2nd or 3rd rounder to fill that organizational need. While it's not foolproof, you have a good chance to find at least a top 4 defenseman in one of these later rounds, and potentially even a future Norris winner. Here's a list of defenseman picked in the 2nd & 3rd rounds from 2002-2012:

  Duncan Keith                           Kevin Klein                  Alex Goligoski                       Andrej Sekera                            Alex Edler                      Marc-Eduard Vlasic                 Kris Letang                              Jeff Petry                      P.K. Subban                             Slava Voynov                       Roman Josi                    Travis Hamonic                     Tyson Barrie                            Justin Faulk                   Damon Severson                 Shayne Gostisbehere               Colton Parayko

Pretty impressive list, eh? For reference, here's a list of defenseman taken in the top 10 in those same drafts that haven't lived up to their billing. 

         Brayden Cobourn                      Cam Barker                    Ladislav Smid
         Boris Valabik                             Keaton Ellerby               Jared Cowen
         Luke Schenn                              Griffin Reinhart              Derick Pouliot

Cam Barker never lived up to his draft billing at #3 overall in 2004 (via nwsportsbeat.com)

While there are some serviceable names in that group, I'm sure there is some buyer's remorse about taking these guys in the top 10. This trend has seemingly continued as Chris Bigras and Madison Bowey are looking like solid picks from the 2013 2nd round. 

What's this mean for 2016? 

Pass on Bean, McAvoy and wait.

What's it mean for 2017?
Connor Timmins and Noel Hoefenmayer may be better value selections than their higher ranked counterparts.

2. Size Doesn't Matter

While this hasn't always been the most popular opinion, it's definitely gained some traction in recent years. The classic example is Marty St. Louis (who went undrafted) but these cases are becoming more and more prevalent. It's easy for scouts to become enamored with a prospect's size heading into the draft and how that size will help him at the NHL level. Every team wants that prototypical number one, two-way center with size ala Anze Kopitar or Jonathan Toews, but one player should never be chosen over another purely based on size alone.

The NHL has become all about speed and skill, represented by the fact that Patrick Kane (5'11'') walked away with the Ted Lindsay, Hart and Art Ross trophies; Joe Pavelski (5'11") lead his team to the Stanley Cup Final, and Johnny Gaudreau (5'09") finished 6th overall in scoring. As the saying goes, "it's not about the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog". Here are some examples of small guys who deserved to go higher in their draft.

• Johnny Gaudreau (4th round)
• Tyler Johnson (undrafted)
• Brad Marchand (3rd round)
• Brendan Gallagher (5th round)
• Joe Pavelski (7th round)
• Claude Giroux (22nd OV)
• Mats Zuccarello (undrafted)

What's this mean for 2016? 
Consider Clayton Keller over Logan Brown, and don't wait on Alex Debrincat. 

What's it mean for 2017?
Don't ignore the abilities of Yamamoto, Suzuki, and Henry in favor of larger players like Vilardi, Rasmussen and Strome.

3. Grab a Faller

I think all hockey fans will remember this moment from 2003:

Shame on them indeed, Pierre. Every year there's a player that falls from where he is originally projected. This can happen for a number of reasons - size, work ethic, off ice issues, etc. Many NHL franchises view these as red flags. Because jobs are on the line, scouts & GMs tend to go with a "safe" pick rather than one that might actually be better for their team. In many cases, prospects can be over scouted. This occurs when a highly touted player is watched and scrutinized so much that people will find flaws with his personality or game that might not actually exist or affect his game on the ice.

There's always a team that benefits from this situation and grabs a player that falls to them - usually in the mid to late first round. Other than Parise, some of the most notable "fallers" in the drafts from 2002-2012 are:

• Sean Couturier - Projected top 3, selected #6
• Cam Fowler - Projected top 5, selected #12
• Brandon Saad - Projected 15 - 25, selected #43
• Olli Maatta - Projected 10-15, selected #22
• Filip Forsberg - Projected top 5, selected #11

Not bad company to be in, especially when you consider the impact (or lack thereof) of players selected in front of them.

What's this mean for 2016?
Usually, you never know who's a "faller" until he falls, but Jacob Chychrun keeps falling in the projections. What once was a surefire top 5 pick is now slated to go ~#10, so he would be the best example.

What's it mean for 2017?
Again, this one usually has to wait until draft day - but there has been movement at the top. Don't be surprised if Nolan Patrick and/or Timothy Liljegren fall out of some of the top spots and go on to induce regret.

4. Goalies Are Fickle

I'm a big believer that you don't pick a goalie in the first round unless there's absolutely no question surrounding his ability (ala Carey Price, Marc - Andre Fleury). They are just too big of a wildcard and take much longer to develop. Most of the time a goalie doesn't even make his NHL debut on the team that drafted him. The goalie market is more saturated than ever and many quality net-minders can be found via free agency or had for cheap on the trade market, so why waste a first or second rounder on one? If I'm a GM, I am waiting until the later rounds and taking a chance on a big European goalie. The evidence speaks for itself.

Pekka Rinne was selected in the 8th round in 2004. A year later, the NHL reduced the draft from nine rounds to seven. (via rantsports.com)

2004

First Round: Al Montoya  (6th OV), Marek Swartz 

Later Rounds: Kari Ramo, Anton Khudobin, Pekka Rinne (8th round) Jaroslav Halak (9th round) &  Brian Elliott (9th round).

2005

First Round: Carey Price, Tuuka Rask 

Later Rounds: Ondrej Pavelec, Jonathan Quick (3rd round) & Ben Bishop (3rd round)
2006

First Round: Jonathan Bernier, Riku Helenius, Semyon Varlamov & Leland Irving

Later Rounds: Michael Neuvirth, Jonas Enroth, Steve Mason, James Reimer
2007

17 selected in 2007, Scott Darling (6th round) the only of note.

2008

Holtby (4th round) was the 9th goalie selected.

2010

Mrazek (round 5), Andersen (round 7)

It's a little too early to judge goalies taken after 2010, but Korpisalo in round three and Hellebuyck in round five are looking like solid selections that would fall into this pattern as well.

Fun Fact: The 2003 draft was even great for goalies. Marc-Andre Fleury, Corey Crawford & Jimmy Howard were the first three selected in that draft. Two are Stanley Cup Champions.

What's this mean for 2016?
Considering no goalie is projected to go in the first round, so this rule doesn't really apply for this draft.

What's it mean for 2017?
Another year without goalies ranked in the first round - perhaps teams are catching on. Either way, Windsor's Michael Dipietro could be a sleeper.

5. Team Specific Drafting

Pick a London Knight

This rule could not be truer than this draft, with at least three Knights set to go in the first round. It's no secret that the London Knights are one of the best franchises in the entire CHL, proven by the fact that they are reigning Memorial Cup Champions and have participated in the tournament four of the last five seasons. It should come as no surprise that teams should be looking at the Knights when making draft selections. What's most impressive, however, is the impact each of these picks has on their NHL franchise. Clearly, the Hunters are great at instilling habits a brand of hockey that translates well to the NHL level.

Patrick Kane headlines an impressive list of former London Knights in the NHL (via Getty Images)

Not only do they produce top players like Patrick Kane, Rick Nash and Corey Perry, but also a number of complimentary players that are able to step into the NHL almost immediately. Dave Bolland, Marc Methot, Vladislav Namestnikov, Chris Tierney are all examples. Overall, 56.6% of London Knights drafted between 2002-2012 have played in the NHL, mostly as significant contributors. If I'm a scout, I take those odds all day.

Other notables: Nazem Kadri, Dennis Wideman, Dan Girardi (undrafted), Olli Maatta, Sam Gagner, Steve Mason
Knights selected after 2012: Max Domi, Bo Horvat, Nikita Zadorov, Mitch Marner, Christian Dvorak

What's it mean for 2016?
Do not wait on Max Jones or Cliff Pu

What's it mean for 2017?
Not as strong of a Knights contingent in this years' draft, but look for Robert Thomas and Alex Formenton to be solid selections (potentially) past the first round.

Pick a Kelowna Rockets Defenseman

Kelowna is a breeding ground for top defensemen. I'm not sure if it's the water in the Okanagan or the Rockets hockey staff, but they know how to find and produce elite NHL defensemen. Here are the defenders selected from the Rockets during that decade:

• Duncan Keith
• Josh Gorges
• Damon Severson
• Tyson Barrie
• Shea Weber
• Alexander Edler
• Tyler Myers
• Luke Schenn

I dare you to find a better group than that from a single CHL team.

What's this mean for 2016?
Lucas Johansen could be the next name added to this list.

What's it mean for 2017?
Grab Cal Foote sooner than later.

In Closing...

The NHL draft is far from a science and these "unwritten rules" should be only seen as another guideline towards making the right decision. I left a few other trends off the list, but here are a couple more look out for:

• Pick Europeans late 
• Beware wingers early
• Keep it in the family - go for ex-NHLer's sons

These aren't as foolproof as the others but still something to consider. Please keep these trends in mind when watchng your team this weekend and let me know if I forgot anything!

How NHL Expansion Affects the 2016 Off-season

Marc-Andre Fleury is just one big name goalie that could be on the move this summer because of NHL expansion rules. 

Unless you've been living under a rock, you know the NHL plans to expand to 32 teams in June of 2017 between the Stanley Cup Final and Entry Draft. Right now, the likely destinations look to be Las Vegas and one of Seattle or Quebec City. The latter could depend on what happens with the Arizona Coyotes, but none of that matters right now. What matters is that this is the final off-season before the expansions draft and it could be anything but ordinary. Expect to see some shrewd, unexpected moves by general managers with the gift of foresight, or those with their hands tied. At the end of the day, this is all about asset management. 

So, what will be different? First, we must examine the rules of expansion in order to see what variables we are dealing with. They are as follows (via ESPN):

• Teams will have two options in who they protect: either they safeguard seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie; or they protect eight skaters (whether they're defensemen or forwards) and one goalie.

• First- and second-year pros -- including those playing pro hockey at any level -- will be exempt from the expansion draft. But if they're entering their third year of pro hockey, they're no longer exempt. Teams would have to either protect them or expose them

• Unsigned draft picks (think college or European players) are exempt from the expansion draft for two years from their draft year but not in Year 3, so teams will have to either rush to sign those guys or simply expose them in the expansion draft.

• The total salaries for the players made available by each team in the expansion draft must be at least 25 percent of the previous season's payroll for that team. Daly explained: "The other variation that makes this expansion draft different is we would contemplate having some thresholds based on salary to make sure that the expansion club can be competitive based on the ranges we have in the CBA. Teams would have some obligation to expose a level of salary. And in terms of drafting players, teams would have to draft a certain threshold of salary." 

ASSUMPTIONS: Players playing who have just finished the first year of their Entry-Level Contract (ELC) will be exempt. (i.e. Shayne Gostisbehere needs to be protected but Max Domi is exempt). 

The 25% rule will NOT have to be implemented, as NMCs have to be protected and honored and it will likely happen naturally with teams wanting to shed themselves of high priced contracts. I DID NOT count players with NMCs expiring in summer of 2017 (Gionta, Wideman, Vermette etc.)

Based on this criteria, I did my best to assess each team's realistic protected list.

Option 1 - 7 F, 3 D, 1 G

Option 2 - 8 S, 1 G

From here, we can make a few guess-timations on potential trends this off-season. Keep this in mind:

GM's told expansion decision expected before June draft. If expand by 1 team, each team loses 1 player...if two teams, 2 players.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) March 16, 2016

Buyers: Hurricanes, Flames, Sabres, Coyotes, Oilers, Panthers, Canadiens, Devils, Flyers, Leafs, Canucks,

Sellers: Ducks, Blackhawks, Avalanche, Blue Jackets, Stars, Red Wings, Wild, Predators, Islanders, Rangers, Senators, Penguins, Sharks, Blues, Lightning, Jets.

Stand Pat: Bruins, Kings, Caps

Those bolded are teams that are those who will be most urgent in regards to making moves because of expansion. 

Trade Frenzy on the Horizon

With so many valuable young players hanging in the balance, look for this off-season to be far more trade-oriented, starting at the Entry Draft in June. Not only that, but look for these deals to mimic those you would normally see at the trade deadline with big name established players with even bigger contracts given up for draft picks and prospects which are exempt from protection. Expect to see fewer teams being in on the coveted free agents, and even fewer NMCs handed out unless it's to a top player in their position. Those teams with some protected spots to spare are the ones who gain to benefit from these conditions. It could cause a shift in power to bring NHL parity to new levels. 

Buyers Market for Goaltending

On my list above there are roughly fifteen teams that have quality goaltenders left unprotected, whether that be a promising prospect like Malcolm Subban or some of the best in the league like Fleury or Bishop. These teams (Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Colorado) would be wise to trade one this off-season to gain an asset exempt from protection. Problem is, they are only a handful of teams in need of a goaltender. This leaves some GMs hands tied - you either sell low or risk losing a valuable asset for nothing. This allows a team like Calgary or Toronto to be patient with their goaltending situation. It might be best to try and sign one to a 1 year deal in hopes a top goaltender will be available for cheap as the expansion draft nears.

Defensemen A-Plenty

Lou Lamirello should be on the phone right now with the number of top four defensemen on the table. A position that is usually near impossible to trade for will suddenly be up for grabs because of expansion. The likes of Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Simon Depres, Marco Scandella and Jack Johnson could all be on the move. Not to mention promising young defenders such as Slater Koekkoek, Micro Mueller, Dylan McIlrath and Brayden McNabb.  The Leafs, Oilers and Canucks are all teams that stand to benefit from this type of market. Look for some of these teams (Chicago, most notably) to make a side deal with expansion teams for draft picks to persuade them against picking their unprotected players, much like the Sharks did in 2000 to keep Evgeni Nabokov safe.

Grey Areas

Some grey areas still exist as expansion details that could have huge consequences are still getting hammered out. The 25% of salary is one, and NMCs expiring in 2017 are another, but here's the biggest one:

Dreger: Nylander would be considered first-year pro now. Next year would be second year. '17-18 would be Year Three. Has to be protected.

— Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) March 16, 2016

 I have a hard time wrapping my head around this one, but it's the reason Nylander was left off my exempt list. If this is the case and applies to all rookies this season, many of those exempt would need protecting and leave even more valuable players up for grabs. What doesn't make sense is that Nylander IS still in his first year of his ELC and going into his second. If the only players eligible for exemption are rookies next season, why make the parameters include second year players? Am I the only one who feels like they are crazy? 

The only distinction that makes sense to me is that Nylander played 37 games in the AHL prior to this past season. Perhaps he crossed some imaginary line (like 25 games for Calder voting) that leaves him unprotected, as it was almost half of a season. The kicker is that if he had been drafted out of North America this would not be an issue because he wouldn't have been eligible to play in the AHL until age 20. Another high profile player this applies to is Artemi Panarin. Although he was an NHL rookie in 2015/16, he has played professional hockey in Europe. The NHL will have to decide if the parameters around first and second year players will only apply to leagues in North America, which could affect a myriad of young players eligibility.

One thing that is certain is that the NHL needs to hammer out these details, and fast. NHL GMs need a clear idea of what they stand to lose come expansion before they can make an accurate plan of how to address their needs this off-season. 

If I Was Stevie Y... (Team Canada 2014)

Let me preface this post by saying welcome back! After an extended sabbatical, hiatus, or whatever you want to call it, I have decided to resurrect this little project of mine. As always I appreciate the read and open to any and all criticism you might have, so don't be shy! Hope everyone had a great holiday season and best wishes for 2014. Now let's talk some hockey.

2014 Canadian Olympic Team

The 2014 Canadian Olympic Team roster is set to be announced on January 7th, and everyone I have talked to on the subject has a different opinion of who should represent our country at Sochi. This means that we know one thing for certain: Yzerman & Company had difficult decisions to make. The roster was finalized on December 27th, and CBC aired a special behind the scenes look at the decision process before the Winter Classic on Wednesday, January 1st (if you missed it, here you go). It seems to me that this year more than ever there are more bubble players than locks on the team, leading to very different lineups depending on who you ask. This is why I feel it necessary to outline what factors I used in my selection process:

• Chemistry - In a short, single elimination tournament the importance of chemistry between players cannot be understated; especially on defense. Look for that trend throughout my lineup, and also notice forward pairings with a third plugged in to add a missing element to the line.
•  Versatility - This is especially true when concerning bottom 6 forwards, and will ultimately be the deciding factor when determining the bubble players. Can Player X play on the penalty kill, or is he only effective in a top 6 role? If his natural position is center, can he be as effective on the wing? Etc. are all questions that must be asked when slotting a player into a role.
• Experience - Canada boasts a wealth of young and exciting talent, so I can understand why people can get caught up in point totals and want the Hall's and Seguin's to get a fair shot. To me, when deciding between 2 players one question pops into my head: Do I trust this player on the ice in the last ten minutes of a one goal game? After that the decision becomes much clearer. Things like playoff and international performance weighed heavily in my mind. 
• Skating Ability - Canada has not earned a medal at an Olympics played outside of North America since NHL players started participating at Nagano in 1998. It's not a coincidence we've won gold in the two others. The Canadian styled game thrives on physicality and controlling the play down low at both ends of the ice. I tried to find a nice blend of size and speed in an attempt to duplicate this strength on a larger ice surface. 

Based on this criteria, here is my 2014 Team Canada:

Forwards

Duchene - Crosby - Stamkos*

Two thirds of this line are fairly obvious, as they are two of the best players in the game. Duchene has played his way onto the team this year, putting up 37 points in 37 games. His play is one of the main reasons the Avalanche have shot up the standings this season. Crosby is the best player in the game, but mainly a play maker. With Duchene's game breaking speed and Stamkos' pure finishing ability, look for this line to lead the charge offensively for Canada. In addition to his skill set, I put Duchene with Crosby because of the chemistry they displayed while training in the offseason.

*If Stamkos is unable to start, insert Rick Nash in his place.

Tavares - Toews - Giroux

 This line is the one I am most curious about. I believe it would either click immediately and be one of our best all tournament, or not work at all. Like the first line, all three forwards play center as their natural position. All of them also possess an extremely high hockey IQ and are dominant at both ends of the ice. Giroux's play-making ability combined with Tavares' scoring touch and Toews' gritty all around game just seemed like a perfect match. If this line falters, it will be because of their lack of physicality. Again, I would swap Nash with Giroux if this was the case.

Staal - Getzlaf - Perry

The third line is made up of all returning players. Getzlaf and Perry have been working wonders in Anaheim this season, leading the Ducks to first overall in the NHL. Although Eric Staal has not been the player he was last season when he finished 6th overall in points, he has picked up his game lately with 26 points in his last 23 games. The fact that he boasts such an international resume and is comfortable playing the wing push him over the other bubble players for me. The size and skill of this line will be a nightmare for the opposition to handle down low. The only concern with this line might be the trade-off with speed for size. If it becomes an issue, I would swap Duchene and Staal as Eric's 2-way play would be a great compliment to the top line.

Couture - Bergeron - Nash

Couture might be one of the most versatile players on the roster, which is why he makes my team over other bubble players like Hall or Benn. He will be in a Mike Richards type of role, and can contribute on the penalty kill with Bergeron. This fourth line will be defensively responsible and no slouch offensively on the cycle. Rick Nash is a lot like Eric Staal in that he is not having his best year, but is always a top player for Canada at the international stage and that cannot be ignored. You know what you get with Bergeron in the faceoff circle and on the defensive side of the puck; just a safe and steady player.

Extras: Sharp, St. Louis

Sharp and St. Louis are able to be inserted on any line and will be effective, something important in a bench player. They also have tremendous chemistry with Toews and Stamkos respectively, and have a great blend of defensive and offensive ability. Both can play on special teams, and although they are new to the Olympics, they have seen it all in the NHL.

 Defense

 Doughty - Weber

These two are locks to make the team, and also the two odd men out when considering my other pairings. With that said, I think Doughty and Weber would make a great pairing whose skill sets compliment each other nicely. I have Doughty playing on his off wing because he is the better skater and believe he would feel more comfortable there.

Keith - Seabrook

Duncan Keith is having a Norris caliber season for the Blackhawks, and also a lock to make Team Canada. Some people don't have Seabrook on their lists, but I think this pairing is too good to pass up. Seabrook himself is having a great year and the chemistry between these two is no secret. It worked in Vancouver, so why not Sochi?

Bouwmeester - Pietrangelo

The third pairing has yet another lock in Alex Pietrangelo. St. Louis has the best defensive core in the league and this is their top pairing. Bouwmeester has really flourished under Hitchcock, and his big frame and skating ability will be a huge asset on international ice. Again, chemistry is paramount in such a short tournament, and that's why this pair gets the nod.

Extras: Subban, Vlasic

P.K. Subban is probably the most discussed and debated about player when it comes to making this team. Yes, he is a Norris trophy winner. Yes, he is currently 3rd when it comes to points among defensman in the NHL. So why isn't he in my starting lineup? First of all, with players like Doughty, Weber, Keith and Pietrangelo, offense from the back end should not be an issue. Secondly, Subban is a high-risk high-reward player that is prone to brain lapses at the wrong time. I have him as an extra defenseman to inject a spark if things aren't going to plan, or if the powerplay needs a boost. Vlasic is a quiet, stay at home defenseman having a career year with the Sharks. If Subban is all flash, Vlasic is his polar opposite. Whereas Subban can boost the PP, Vlasic can be a steady force throughout the lineup and contribute on the PK. This dynamic is important when considering bench players.

Goaltending

Price

Luongo

Smith

The first two are no surprise. With Price having the banner year he has had up until this point, I have to give him the nod as the starter in Sochi. Mike Smith is the best puck handling goaltender in the league, and adds another dimension that someone like Fleury or Crawford doesn't have. Although he probably won't see any ice time, it is still an important factor to consider because of the no "restricted zone" on international ice. 

Fantasy Guide 2013

Just in time for fantasy season, here is my fantasy guide for 2013. I was going to do a top 5 for each, but there were too many young players I thought were ready for big seasons. When talking about break out players I avoid choosing rookies, and keep in mind I'm not saying to complete avoid my under-performers, just be wary. Enjoy.

Top 10 Break Out Players

Viktor Hedman (TB)
Hedman is entering his fourth full year in the league, and is poised to solidify his spot as Tampa Bay's #1 defenseman. The 6-6 220 pound Hedman has increased his points per game(PPG) totals each season (0.27, 0.33, 0.38) and expect that trend to continue. Like many players on this list, Hedman has been a beneficiary of staying active during the lockout and it has really helped his offensive game; posting an impressive 21 points in 26 KHL games.

Semyon Varlamov (COL)

Another player looking to continue his hot play from the KHL is Avalanche goaltender Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov has been on fire since last year's All-Star Break posting a 0.928 save percentage (sv%) in the last 23 games of the season. He followed that up with a World Championship gold medal where he went 8-0 with a 1.77 GAA and 0.939sv%. So far in the KHL, Varly hasn't slowed down putting up a 1.74 GAA and 0.946sv%. The numbers don't lie, and if he can remain healthy the 24 year old could begin to establish himself as one of the game's top goaltenders.

Jakub Voracek (PHI)
Voracek is a player that I have been waiting to break out for the past few seasons. The former 7th overall pick is entering his 5th season in the league and second as a member of the Philadelphia Flyers. The biggest advantage Voracek will have this year is replacing Jaromir Jagr along side Claude Giroux. He has put up 20 points in 23 KHL games this year and look for him to carry that momentum into this season to put up a career high in PPG - somewhere in the realm of 0.8.

Jamie Benn (DAL)
Some people may think that the next few players already had their breakout seasons last year. While that is true in some respect, I think it was just a sign of what's to come. Jamie Benn is one of those players. Not only does this guy contribute on the scoreboard, but he hits, fights and plays a 200 foot game. He put up 63 points last year and like Hedman has increased his PPG totals in each of his first three seasons (0.5, 0.81, 0.89). I expect that trend to continue centering a line between Loui Eriksson and Jaromir Jagr. Look for him to (at least) hit the 1.0 PPG mark, while establishing himself as one of the best all-around centers in the league.

John Tavares (NYI)
John Tavares is already considered one of the top players in the league. However, I think this year is when he enters the Giroux, Stamkos, Crosby and Malkin level as one of the league's elite. He has consistently increased his PPG stat from 0.66 to 0.85 to last year's high of 0.99 with 81 points in 82 games. He has done all of this with virtually no help on Long Island. I expect this upward trend to continue because he can create offense on his own. He has not been idle over the lockout, tearing up the top league in Switzerland and if there were an 82 game season he would be flirting with the elusive 100 point marker; over 48 expect around 55 points.

Gabriel Landeskog (COL)
Gabriel Landeskog had a big year in 2012. Not only did he have an impressive rookie year that earned him the Calder Trophy, he was also named the youngest captain in NHL history in the offseason when Milan Hejduk stepped down. Some might consider this a lot of pressure for such a young player, but like Jonathon Toews I believe he is the type that will thrive in the role. After starting out slow (on the score sheet) last season, Landeskog put up 25 points in the last 30 games. I don't see him exploding offensively, but continue scoring at a similar clip. I see him ending up in the 38 point range in this shortened season while doing everything else on the ice.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (PHO)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson might be the best kept secret in the league. The former 6th overall pick is only entering his third full season but is already one of the best young defenseman in the game. Although many young Swedish defenders get the "Niklas Lidstrom" comparison, he might be the only one that deserves it. He really emerged last season putting up 32 points for the Coyotes and was an important part of them reaching the conference finals. In 20 games this year in the AHL, Ekman-Larsson has amassed 21 points. Look for him to continue his hot play and put up close to 0.5 PPG for the Yotes this year.

Dmitri Kulikov (FLA)
Kulikov is another defender from the 2009 draft poised to have a big season. Unlike his counter parts he hasn't been lighting up the KHL when it comes to points; but his contribution is felt in other areas. He did manage to put up 28 points in 58 games last season and that pace could be eclipsed given more power play time with Jason Garrison gone. Like Ekman-Larsson, he is hidden in a small market but is another guy who will be a big part of his team's success this year and will emerge as a top young defenseman.

Roman Josi (NSH)
Keeping with the trend of young defenseman in larger roles, look no further than Roman Josi. Josi will be given the tough task of replacing Ryan Suter along side Shea Weber. The Swiss defender put up 40 points in his first season in the AHL and 16 points in 52 games for the Preds last year. Like Kulikov, I'm not expecting any outrageous numbers but with an increased role as well as powerplay time, I do expect him to become a household name and play very well next to Weber.
 
Jordan Staal (CAR)
Last but not least, Jordan Staal is an obvious choice for breakout player of the year. The talented center has been stuck behind the two best players in the league his whole career thus far, and has still managed to put up impressive point totals while in a defensive role. Now in Carolina with his big brother Eric, look for the former #2 overall pick to drastically increase his point production with more ice time and skilled line mates like Jeff Skinner. If anyone doubts his ability to score, just look at who the Penguins passed over to pick him in the 2006 draft- Jonathon Toews and Niklas Backstrom.

Honorable Mentions: Cam Atkinson (CLB) , Travis Hamonic (NYI), James van Riemsdyk (TOR), Slava Voynov (LA), Jake Gardiner (TOR)

Top 5 Bounce Back Players

Matt Duchene (COL)
Matt Duchene looked poised to have huge offensive numbers last season after putting up 67 points the year before, but bad luck with injuries and chemistry with team mates held him to only 28 points in 58 games. Duchene has used last season's woes as a learning experience for what it means to be a professional, and look for him to have a big year. He has been active playing in Sweden and Switzerland, and was named the Spengler Cup's best center over players like Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron and Jason Spezza.

Patrick Kane (CHI)
Most players wish that they could consider 66 points to be an off year like Patrick Kane's 2012 season. The talented winger was forced to play center for a portion of the year with Jonathon Toews out with injury, and it clearly hurt his numbers. With a healthy Chicago lineup I expect him to at least go a PPG, and we will see if he can eclipse that mark for the second time in his career.

Mikko Koivu (MIN)
Another player ravaged by injuries last year, Koivu was only able to play in 55 games for the Wild where he amassed 44 points. In a regular 82 game season, the center is always good for ~ 70 points, but expectations are higher this year. Playing between Zach Parise and Dany Heatley, Koivu finally has some help on the wings and I expect him to hit a career high in points and really get noticed as one of the best two way centers in the league.

Alexander Ovechkin (WSH)
Ovechkin is a wild card heading into this year. While everyone knows what he is capable of, his numbers have been on a steady decline since the 2009/10 season mainly due to predictability in his game. However, the entire Capitals organization has been a roller coaster the past few years and with Adam Oates behind the bench and the addition of Mike Ribeiro to spread out the offense, I think OV can get back on track. He has also been playing in the KHL this season, with 40 points in 31 games. I won't make any point total predictions, except that his production will increase.

Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
The 27 year old Getzlaf is not only one of the most purely skilled players in the league, but he is also entering the prime of his career. The only thing that has ever been in question is his motivation during the regular season. After putting up over a point per game for the previous 4 years, Getzlaf's production fell to a career low last season. The fact that he is an unrestricted free agent this summer and playing for a contract means he should have no shortage of motivation this season. Look for him to return to form with 1.0+ ppg numbers.

Honorable Mentions: Bobby Ryan (ANA), Jeff Carter (LA), Drew Doughty (LA), Alex Semin (CAR), Mike Green (WSH)

Top 5 Under-Performers

Erik Karlsson (OTT)

I'm still upset that a defenseman that does not play on the PK won the Norris last year. I have no doubt that Karlsson will put up points, just do not expect a repeat year out of him. A defenseman has not led the league in scoring for his position for back to back years since Mike Green in the 2008/09-2009/10 seasons. Given the fact that Ottawa's depleted blue line will mean more defensive responsibility for Karlsson and that the opposition will begin to make him a main part of their game plan, it will likely lead to a drop in his numbers.

Joffrey Lupul (TOR)
Joffrey Lupul hit a career high in points last season playing along side Phil Kessel. I don't think that the chemistry is going to be completely lost between them, but I'm not sure he will be able to repeat his 2012 campaign. He has battled injuries throughout his career, and in Carlyle's system he will be forced to play a defensively responsible game. Don't rule out the chance of van Riemsdyk replacing him on the top line if the Leafs struggle to score early on.

Brian Elliott (STL)
Brian Elliott went from zero to hero last season after bouncing around from Ottawa to Colorado and struggling heavily in the process. His career high save percentage jumped from 0.909 to an astounding 0.940. I don't doubt Hitchcock's system will lead to more solid numbers for the netminder, but I do not see him getting as many starts in this shortened season, and struggling to repeat his stellar performance in the games he does play.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) 

I will probably get a lot of flack for this pick, and I will be the first to admit my fault if I am wrong. However, I just have this feeling that Nugent-Hopkins has sophomore slump written all over him. Do not get me wrong, he is an amazing player who will have a great career, but sophomore slumps do happen. With the amount of inexperience on this Edmonton team combined with lofty expectations, there is a lot of pressure on Nuge. Like Karlsson, teams will no longer be surprised by his skill set but instead design their game plans to defend him. Not only that, but I expect this shortened season to be a much more defensive, physical brand of hockey more akin to the playoffs. He has yet to play a full injury free season in professional hockey (hurt in the AHL earlier this year), and this type of hockey could get him off his game. He will still put up points, but rather than a PPG pace I'd expect more in the 35 point range.

Andrei Markov (MTL)
No real surprise in this selection. Markov has not been able to play more than 45 games since the 2008/09 season. When healthy, he is a top defender in the game, but with his age and injury concern he is a real risk to pick in any fantasy draft. With P.K. Subban's contract dispute not looking promising, he will be depended on even more for the Canadiens and that will mean more attention from the opposition.

Effects of a Shortened Season

Hooray! The lockout is over!!...  So why is everyone left with a bad taste in their mouth? After a ridiculous 113-day work stoppage that should have been over months ago, the best hockey league in the world is ready to get back on the ice. Thinking about the CBA for so long has given me a headache, so let's get to some actual hockey talk. Here's a look at how a shorted NHL season will affect teams.

The 48 Game Schedule Format

The format for the season is very interesting, given that they will eliminate inter-conference games. Each team will play two of their division 'rivals' 5 times, the other two 4 times, and the remaining 30 games will be divided equally between the 10 other conference opponents. This is a messy schedule that will have huge playoff implications (I'll be the first to tell you the predictions I made in the offseason will be way off). For example, the Maple Leafs would much rather play their extra divisional games against Montreal or Ottawa, not Boston or Buffalo. How does the league determine how to split up these games? Ultimately, this format will benefit teams that perform well against division rivals, and hinder those who beat up on inter-conference opponents. Here is a breakdown of each team with the extreme ends of the spectrum emphasized (Green - benefit, Red - hindrance):

Standings (2011/2012)	Vs. Division	Vs. East	Vs. West
New York Rangers*	13-6-5	41-18-5	10-6-2
Boston Bruins*	19-4-1	38-23-3	11-6-1
Florida Panthers*	12-8-4	33-19-12	5-7-6
Pittsburgh Penguins	13-10-1	38-23-3	13-2-3
Philadelphia Flyers	11-11-2	36-21-7	11-5-2
New Jersey Devils	13-11-0	38-22-4	10-6-2
Washington Capitals	12-8-4	34-22-8	8-10-0
Ottawa Senators	9-12-3	34-22-8	7-9-2
Buffalo Sabres	13-6-5	28-26-10	11-6-1
Tampa Bay Lightning	13-7-4	29-29-6	9-7-2
Winnipeg Jets	14-6-4	29-26-9	8-9-1
Carolina Hurricanes	9-10-5	25-27-12	8-6-4
Toronto Maple Leafs	9-14-1	26-31-7	9-6-3
New York Islanders	8-13-3	27-30-7	7-7-4
Montreal Canadiens	10-8-6	24-28-12	7-7-4

Standings (2011/2012)	Vs. Division	Vs. East	Vs. West
Vancouver Canucks*	18-5-1	11-6-1	40-16-8
St. Louis Blues*	10-9-5	14-2-2	35-20-9
Phoenix Coyotes*	13-6-5	8-7-3	34-20-10
Nashville Predators	16-5-3	8-7-3	40-19-5
Detroit Red Wings	13-10-1	10-7-1	38-21-5
Chicago Blackhawks	16-6-2	12-3-3	33-23-8
San Jose Sharks	12-11-1	12-5-1	31-24-9
Los Angeles Kings	13-4-7	7-7-4	33-20-11
Calgary Flames	15-6-3	6-7-5	31-22-11
Dallas Stars	12-11-1	8-7-3	34-28-2
Colorado Avalanche	8-14-2	13-4-1	28-31-5
Minnesota Wild	11-12-1	5-9-4	30-27-7
Anaheim Ducks	10-7-3	8-6-4	26-30-8
Edmonton Oilers	8-11-5	8-7-3	24-33-7
Columbus Blue Jackets	5-17-2	6-9-3	23-37-4

Notes:  

• The West really beat up the East last year, with only 3 Western Conference teams going below .500 against East opponents 
• Colorado seems to lose the most from this new setup, whereas Calgary are the largest beneficiaries 
• If you take out games against the East, Dallas and San Jose would have swapped positions in the standings; with the Stars in the playoffs 
• Though the Blues did very well last season, they struggled against their division and many of their points were from beating the East
• Even in the toughest division in hockey last year, the Rangers still dominated 
• Even though they finished last in the conference, the Canadiens managed to perform well against divisional opponents 
• The difference in teams that perform well against inter-conference teams but not so well against their own division/conference is mainly due to poor coaching

The abbreviated season will have the largest impact on those bubble teams fighting for a playoff spot, and the schedule makes these races even more interesting. In the East, the Jets fared well against their division but the immense distances they will travel in comparison to any other team could be the difference in earning a few important points. Because of the format, it's unlikely that tough divisions like the Atlantic and Central will once again have 4 teams make the cut again (I'm looking at you New Jersey and Nashville); so look for an extra Northwest and Southeast team to get to the dance this year. Age and chemistry are other factors to consider. Although my summer predictions saw Detroit missing the playoffs, I think the short season will allow for less wear and tear on their veterans and lead to success. If youthful teams like the Avalanche and Leafs get off to a hot start, they can secure a playoff appearance early despite consistent late season woes.On the contrary, a team with a lot of new acquisitions like Dallas could stumble out of the gate while attempting to develop chemistry. Being a bubble team without much room for error, this could leave the Stars on the outside looking in.

Just some food for thought as we prepare for the season beginning January 19th. Next week (in time for Fantasy Hockey) I will have a look at which players will break out in 2013, and which will bounce back from less than stellar 2012 campaigns.